Analysis of Climate Change Projections for Mozambique under the Representative Concentration Pathways

Despite having contributed the least to global warming and lowest emissions, African region is most vulnerable continent climate change impacts. To reduce levels of risk arising from change, it mandatory combine both mitigation adaptation. While can warming, not all impacts be avoided. Therefore, adaptation essential advance strategic interventions As part international effort cope with changing climate, a set Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains have been established worldwide. The CORDEX-Africa initiative has developed analyze downscaled regional data over domain for analysis techniques engage users information in sector-specific region/space-based applications. This study takes outputs high-resolution multi-models constructed at spatial resolution 50 km assess projections Mozambique. Projected temporal changes (three 30-year time periods, present (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070), end (2071–2100)) temperature precipitation under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 are analyzed compared relative baseline period (1961–1990). Results show that there tendency toward an increase annual as we move middle century, mainly RCP4.5 scenarios. evident Gaza Province, north Tete parts Niassa where variations will Tmax (0.92 4.73 °C), Tmin (1.12 4.85 Tmean (0.99 4.7 °C). In contrast, coastal experience less variation (values < 0.5 °C 3 At seasonal scale, pattern does differ scale. JJA SON seasons largest DJF MAM seasons. may reach 4.47 DJF, 4.59 MAM, 5.04 JJA, 5.25 SON. Precipitation shows substantial variations, scales. northern zone reduction precipitation, while entire southern region, exception part, up 40% 50% some central regions, future climates periods three reference scale (DJF MAM), much Mozambique above average more than during season, scenarios decrease precipitation. Notably, interior decrease, reaching ?60% Gaza, Tete, Provinces.